A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
